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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Carries
Player Prop Week 13

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 46.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see just 130.9 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

The predictive model expects Derrick Henry to earn 20.9 carries in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

Derrick Henry has been given 70.6% of his offense's run game usage this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's safety corps has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.

The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.

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