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Derrick Henry
NFL · Player Props
Derrick Henry
RB · Tennessee Titans
Carries
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023 Updated Dec 3, 2023 5:31 PM UTC
NFL Props Derrick Henry Carries

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -120.

Favors Over
  • The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 46.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see just 130.9 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The predictive model expects Derrick Henry to earn 20.9 carries in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
  • Derrick Henry has been given 70.6% of his offense's run game usage this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's safety corps has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.
Favors Under
  • The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
  • The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
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