Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A running game script is indicated by the Titans being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
The leading projections forecast the Titans as the most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 49.8% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This week, Derrick Henry is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 21.4 rush attempts.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Carolina's LB corps has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The fewest plays in football have been called by the Tennessee Titans this year (a mere 52.7 per game on average).
Derrick Henry has been much less involved in his team's run game this season (69.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (80.1%).

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