Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 21.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace among all games this week, averaging 27.47 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game this week (77.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (89.9% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.