D'Ernest Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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D'Ernest Johnson

NFL · Player Props

D'Ernest Johnson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Ernest Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a -4-point underdog in this week's game.
The leading projections forecast the Jaguars as the 10th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In terms of a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.49 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars as the 6th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) right now.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
The Ravens pass defense has yielded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.6%) vs. running backs this year (86.6%).

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
D'Ernest Johnson has run a route on 13.0% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 24th percentile when it comes to RBs.
D'Ernest Johnson has been one of the bottom pass-catching RBs this year, averaging just 0.9 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 25th percentile among running backs.
The Ravens safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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