Derius Davis Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Derius Davis

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:52 PM EST

Analysis

Derius Davis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+610/-740).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Chargers being a -3.5-point underdog this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have 130.0 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may decline.
Our trusted projections expect Derius Davis to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this week's contest (7.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
After accruing 3.0 air yards per game last year, Derius Davis has produced significantly more this year, currently pacing 20.0 per game.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.3% pass rate.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Chargers grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
With a lousy ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Derius Davis places among the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to wideouts since the start of last season.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Broncos defense this year (64.8% Adjusted Completion%).
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 9th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.75 per game this year.