Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 11:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 70.0% red zone pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr has been among the top TD throwers in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 1.56 per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in football vs. the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (73.8%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.