Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 18, 2023

Updated Jan 8, 2024 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 138.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a monstrous 61.1 per game on average).
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
In this week's contest, Derek Carr is expected by the projections to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.0.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is implied by the Saints being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
When it comes to pass protection (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (66.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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