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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 18

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 138.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a monstrous 61.1 per game on average).

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

In this week's contest, Derek Carr is expected by the projections to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.0.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Saints being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.

When it comes to pass protection (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (66.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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