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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a staggering 62.1 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Derek Carr's throwing precision has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 61.4% to 64.7%.

The New York cornerbacks project as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 6.5 points.

At the moment, the 10th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (54.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.

The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The Giants defense has surrendered the 8th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.15 per game this year.

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