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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-194).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +162 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 133.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.7 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the NFL against the Detroit Lions defense this year (68.3% Adjusted Completion%).

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