My Account Log Out

reorder

Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to call the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a whopping 64.7 per game on average).

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.

Our trusted projections expect Derek Carr to throw 36.5 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints have been the 9th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 49.6% red zone pass rate.

As it relates to pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

More Derek Carr Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™