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Derek Carr
NFL · Player Props
Derek Carr
QB · Las Vegas Raiders
TD Passes
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022 Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC
NFL Props Derek Carr TD Passes

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -134.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 10th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
  • Derek Carr's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 62.1%.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a measly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
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