Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 10th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
Derek Carr's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 62.1%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a measly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.