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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-146/+117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -146.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Raiders rank as the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.8% red zone pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 38.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in football.

Derek Carr's throwing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 62.7%.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the NFL versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year (65.8%).

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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