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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Raiders rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 71.5% red zone pass rate.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Derek Carr has attempted 37.0 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 87th percentile among QBs.

The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.

Derek Carr's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 61.2%.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the league versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season (65.2%).

The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 4th-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.25 per game since the start of last season.

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