Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 11:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The Carolina Panthers defensive ends grade out as the worst DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 43.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to earn 2.2 carries in this week's contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.

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