Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a staggering 62.1 per game on average).
This year, the tough Giants run defense has surrendered a paltry 4.95 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's ground game: the 30th-lowest rate in football.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
This week, Derek Carr is projected by the projection model to total the fewest carries out of all QBs with 1.7.
Derek Carr is not much of a runner and has accounted for a measly 3.6% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 10th percentile when it comes to QBs.
Derek Carr has generated a measly 4.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in the NFL among QBs (13th percentile).
Derek Carr's ground efficiency has worsened this year, averaging a mere 4.02 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.12 rate last year.

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