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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (8.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.9% in games he has played).

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.

Derek Carr's rushing effectiveness has improved this year, compiling 6.83 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.73 figure last year.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Derek Carr has been among the bottom QBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a measly 0.73 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 20th percentile.

The Indianapolis Colts defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 4.19 yards-per-carry.

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