Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-143/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 242.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 224.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.98 seconds per snap.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 8.31 yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 206.0 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.

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