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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 230.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 215.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 230.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Saints, who are -4.5-point underdogs.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.

Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a massive 61.4 per game on average).

In this week's game, Derek Carr is anticipated by the model to have the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.7.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Derek Carr's 212.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a noteworthy diminishment in his passing skills over last year's 237.0 figure.

Derek Carr profiles as one of the least effective quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging just 6.62 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 21st percentile.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the NFL against the Rams defense this year (63.6% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the formidable Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing teams: a meager 7.0 yards.

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