Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 210.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 217.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 210.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a staggering 62.1 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr's throwing precision has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 61.4% to 64.7%.
The New York Giants defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Derek Carr's 212.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season illustrates a noteable diminishment in his throwing ability over last season's 237.0 rate.
With a subpar 6.55 adjusted yards-per-target (21st percentile) this year, Derek Carr rates as one of the least effective QBs in the league.

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