Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 234.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 228.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 234.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 133.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year.
With a feeble 6.48 adjusted yards-per-target (16th percentile) this year, Derek Carr rates as one of the least efficient QBs in the league.
This year, the stout Lions defense has given up the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a measly 4.4 YAC.

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