Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 232.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 236.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 232.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week's game, Derek Carr is forecasted by the projections to wind up with the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.9.

Favors Under

The Saints O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Derek Carr is positioned as one of the worst per-play QBs in the league this year, averaging just 6.42 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 19th percentile.
This year, the tough Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded a measly 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.
This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 8th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing teams: a feeble 4.6 YAC.

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