Derek Carr Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 239.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 243.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 239.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Saints to call the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a whopping 64.7 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
Our trusted projections expect Derek Carr to throw 36.5 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

Favors Under

As it relates to pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Derek Carr profiles as one of the least efficient passers in football this year, averaging just 6.44 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 25th percentile.
The Vikings pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, giving up 7.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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