Derek Carr Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Pass Attempts

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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