Derek Carr Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Pass Attempts

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-102/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a measly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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