Derek Carr Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Pass Attempts

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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