Derek Carr Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Completions

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in football against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season (73.4%).

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
Derek Carr has been among the worst precision passers in football since the start of last season with a 61.2% Completion%, ranking in the 16th percentile.

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