Derek Carr Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Completions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 2:50 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr has attempted 37.0 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 87th percentile among QBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Derek Carr's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 61.2%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the league versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season (65.2%).
The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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