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Derek Carr
NFL · Player Props
Derek Carr
QB · Las Vegas Raiders
Completions
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2022 Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST
NFL Props Derek Carr Completions

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+110/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -147.

Favors Over
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Derek Carr has attempted 36.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 75th percentile among quarterbacks.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks project as the 4th-worst group of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Favors Under
  • The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a measly 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
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