Deon Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Deon Jackson

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Deon Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to accrue 17.1 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (58.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (30.8% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.