Deon Jackson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Deon Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Deon Jackson

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Deon Jackson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+136/-189).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -174 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to total 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (76%) vs. running backs this year (76.0%).
The New England Patriots defensive ends project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

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