Deon Jackson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Deon Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Deon Jackson

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 27, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Deon Jackson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to accrue 2.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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