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Denzel Mims

Denzel Mims Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Denzel Mims Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+172/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -203 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -240.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.

The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Denzel Mims has been among the weakest WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.9 receptions per game while grading out in the 16th percentile among wideouts.

Denzel Mims has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching just 41.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 11th percentile among wideouts

The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.2%) vs. WRs this year (61.2%).

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