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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Demario Douglas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+960/-1150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1050 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the New England Patriots.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Patriots O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

With an excellent ratio of 0.25 per game through the air (76th percentile), DeMario Douglas has been as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to wide receivers this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

While DeMario Douglas has garnered 16.7% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much less involved in New England's passing attack near the goal line in this contest at 3.4%.

After accumulating 29.0 air yards per game last season, DeMario Douglas has produced significantly less this season, now averaging 14.0 per game.

More Demario Douglas Player Props

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