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Demario Douglas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-225/+165).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -225.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.Our trusted projections expect Demario Douglas to earn 6.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.Demario Douglas grades out as one of the best WRs in the game this year, averaging an outstanding 4.4 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.Demario Douglas's 77.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a material growth in his receiving talent over last season's 64.1% figure.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The model projects the Patriots as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The New England Patriots have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.7 per game) this year.In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year.
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