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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Demario Douglas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-118/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ +101 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Patriots O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

With an exceptional 4.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (89th percentile) since the start of last season, DeMario Douglas stands among the top wide receivers in the game in the league in picking up extra yardage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

After accumulating 29.0 air yards per game last season, DeMario Douglas has produced significantly less this season, now averaging 14.0 per game.

DeMario Douglas's 18.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 35.8.

More Demario Douglas Player Props

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