Demarcus Robinson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Demarcus Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Demarcus Robinson

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 4, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Demarcus Robinson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+372/-754).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -661 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -754.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Demarcus Robinson has accrued significantly more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (23.0 per game).
Demarcus Robinson's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 15.2.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens have utilized play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 30.36 seconds per play.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) versus wideouts this year (62.4%).
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 3rd-least TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.55 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks project as the 4th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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