Demarcus Robinson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Demarcus Robinson

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Demarcus Robinson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+315/-576).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -571 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -576.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Demarcus Robinson to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (18.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.0% in games he has played).
Demarcus Robinson has totaled significantly more air yards this season (39.0 per game) than he did last season (23.0 per game).
Demarcus Robinson's 33.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 14.7.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a heavy 13-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.