Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 11, 2024 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect Deebo Samuel to accrue 6.8 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With an impressive 4.0 adjusted catches per game (77th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel rates as one of the best wide receivers in the game in football.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Deebo Samuel has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (70.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (90.2%).
Deebo Samuel's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 69.3% to 60.8%.

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