Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The model projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 7.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
With a high 23.2% Target% (84th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel stands among the WRs with the most usage in football.
Deebo Samuel's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 63.4% to 75.5%.
This year, the deficient Cardinals pass defense has allowed a massive 71.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-largest rate in football.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a heavy 11.5-point favorite in this game.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the 49ers to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cardinals defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

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