Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Deebo Samuel has run a route on 88.2% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 63.4% to 71.5%.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.6 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year.

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