Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:41 PM EST

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+123/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to earn 8.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Deebo Samuel has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 27.1% this year, which puts him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Deebo Samuel's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.5% to 59.6%.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers project as the 9th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

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