Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 4, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.0 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 5.0 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to garner 7.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
Deebo Samuel has been a key part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 26.1% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Deebo Samuel has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 57.0 plays per game.
Deebo Samuel's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.5% to 61.2%.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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