Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:35 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-159/+119).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to garner 6.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Deebo Samuel has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 25.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Deebo Samuel has been among the leading wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.9 receptions per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
Deebo Samuel's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.5% to 59.5%.