Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-163).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Deebo Samuel has been among the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a stellar 4.4 receptions per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Deebo Samuel's 46.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 59.3.
Deebo Samuel's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.9% to 60.9%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63%) versus WRs this year (63.0%).