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Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to earn 6.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among WRs.

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Deebo Samuel has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 4.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Deebo Samuel's 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 55.7.

Deebo Samuel's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.9% to 61.6%.

More Deebo Samuel Player Props

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