Deebo Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+122/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to garner 6.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
Deebo Samuel has been heavily involved in his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 25.9% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Deebo Samuel has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks grade out as the 7th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 46.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.

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