Deebo Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+206/-311).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -310 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -311.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Deebo Samuel has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Deebo Samuel's 51.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 80th percentile for wide receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Deebo Samuel has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 5th-least passing TDs in football to WRs: 0.50 per game this year.
The Carolina Panthers linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.

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