Deebo Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+204/-307).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -288 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -307.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Deebo Samuel has accounted for a colossal 25.8% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Deebo Samuel's 56.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 89th percentile for wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Deebo Samuel ranks in the 75th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.29 per game.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
Deebo Samuel's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.5% to 59.5%.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (61.3%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (61.3%).

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