Deebo Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Deebo Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-280).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks grade out as the worst CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to be a much smaller part of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (21.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.0% in games he has played).
Deebo Samuel has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).

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