Deebo Samuel Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Deebo Samuel

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Deebo Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+216/-331).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +231 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +216.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to be a more important option in his team's air attack near the goal line this week (20.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.4% in games he has played).
Deebo Samuel has posted a monstrous 64.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel's 58.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 88th percentile for wide receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Deebo Samuel ranks in the 78th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.32 per game.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.